CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-03-28T23:58:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Mar 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an impulsive X1/2b flare at
29/1748 UTC from Region 2017 (N10W34, Dao/beta-gamma-delta).  In
addition, a Type-II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 4,508 km/s, a
complex Castelli-U radio burst signature with a notable burst of 110,000
sfu on 245 MHz, and a Tenflare of 360 sfu were observed during this
event.  Region 2017 continued to evolve rapidly this period and
maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration although the
portion containing the delta area appeared to be weakening.

Region 2021 (S15E36, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited moderate development this
period while Region 2014 (S14W60, Cso/beta-gamma) continued a minor
decay trend as it makes its way to the west limb.  There was a 5 degree
filament liftoff in the vicinity of Region 2014, centered near S12W53, 
between 29/2213-2237 and was followed by a C2 flare at 29/2248 from that
region.

Preliminary data and analysis indicate that a coronal mass ejection
(CME) associated with the X-flare detailed above is headed north of the
ecliptic, although forecaster analysis is ongoing.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2(Minor-Moderate)) with a
slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next
three days (30 Mar - 01 Apr) with Region 2017 being the likely source.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced (just below 2 pfu at
the time of this writing) following the X1 flare.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (30 Mar - 01 Apr).  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced but ultimately remain
below the S1 (Minor) threshold for the next two days (30 - 31 Mar).  By
day three (01 Apr) proton flux values should return to background levels
barring enhancement from further flare activity.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels.  Solar wind speed was
steady in the 375-450 km/s range.  Total field values were steady near 4
nT and the Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward value of -4
nT.  Phi data was oriented in a negative (toward) sector throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels
for the next two days (30 - 31 Mar).  Enhanced solar wind speeds are
expected mid-to-late day three (01 Apr) with the arrival of the 28 Mar
CMEs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions (29/0000-0300 UTC) due to sustained southward Bz. 
During the X1 flare mentioned above, a rare effect known as geomagnetic
crochet was observed via a minor nT deviation (17 nT at Boulder) in the
H-traces of the magnetometers which were in the sunlit portion of Earth
during the flare.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet over the
next two days (30 - 31 Mar) and for the first half of day three (01
Apr).  Mid-to-late in the period on day three (01 Apr), the geomagnetic
field is expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions with the
anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 Mar CMEs.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Mar 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2014

            Mar 30     Mar 31     Apr 01
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          2     
06-09UT        1          1          2     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds but elevated following an R3 radio
blackout.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2014

              Mar 30  Mar 31  Apr 01
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm for the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 29 2014 1748 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2014

              Mar 30        Mar 31        Apr 01
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Further R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely,
particularly from Region 2017.

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